I knew it—my hypothesis seems correct after seeing today’s post from Amjad (Replit CEO):
“The next generation of LLM applications will require consumers to think less about paying for software and more about hiring an hourly employee. Replit is a step ahead in this direction, and I expect all major labs to implement similar models.”
Replit no longer wants to sell their software as a product. As I argued, we shouldn’t expect them to lower the price of Agent 3. These agents are becoming more and more capable – they will soon be comparable to the top 10% of programmers – which increases their value, and Replit knows this. So it doesn’t make sense to sell “software” but rather the outcome and value of the service. That’s exactly what the line is about: “LLM applications will be more like hourly employees than software licenses.”
So, let’s be prepared that programming with Replit will cost around $10/hour, which is $80-100 per workday, or around $2,400 per month for daily use. Is that a lot? Both yes and no. Not compared to hiring a top-notch programmer, but it’s a significant new cost that needs to be factored into your quotes. If you’re going to use Replit to its fullest, expect $1,500-2,500 per month - similar to the cost of a new employee. Replit seems to be deliberately trying to make us think of the service as an hourly “employee,” because if they were to market it as software, few people would pay $2,000 per month. So it makes sense to promote it as hiring an “agent” employee.
What does this mean for us? Another fixed expense – around $2,000 per month for an “employee” (Replit agent) that we have to add to our existing costs.
The question is: are we competitive enough to succeed in a world where almost anyone can create a basic website or simple app? Why should clients hire us?
So what? Honestly, I don’t know yet! 
